EIDM INNOVATION IN AFRICA #15 | Guide for decision-making when facing complexity and uncertainty

Hosted by: Sandy Oliver, University College London

Evidence 2023 online programme slot: Day 2, Slot 6: 15:30-16:15

Decision-makers often face urgent decisions in an ever-changing and complex environment, when evidence may be uncertain. Some turn pre-dominantly to what is known about problems they face locally and the opportunities for local responses. Others tend to look further afield to learn from international efforts that address similar problems elsewhere. While both local knowledge and international research can help, both also miss important issues. The guide, still in development, comes from listening to decision makers and reading relevant research. It describes four well-trodden pathways for making decisions and helps readers choose where to start, how to consider different forms of knowledge together, and what to do when knowledge is uncertain. It emphasises the common core ingredients for all these pathways: mutual learning and joint decision making. Lastly, it offers suggestions for doing this sort of work in the public eye, by respecting accountability and managing risk.